今年(nian)(nian)(nian)全國4大中(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)交易市(shi)(shi)場中(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)價(jia)格(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)4至(zhi)(zhi)9倍(bei)，當歸價(jia)格(ge)從去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)50元一(yi)(yi)斤(jin)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)至(zhi)(zhi)目前200元一(yi)(yi)斤(jin)。價(jia)格(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)去(qu)了，可成(cheng)交量(liang)(liang)下來了，往(wang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)來市(shi)(shi)場購買(mai)的至(zhi)(zhi)少200公(gong)斤(jin)，如今單人最高購買(mai)某一(yi)(yi)種中(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)的只(zhi)有50公(gong)斤(jin)，中(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)價(jia)格(ge)高并(bing)沒有給藥(yao)(yao)(yao)農、交易市(shi)(shi)場上(shang)(shang)(shang)商販(fan)帶來豐厚(hou)利(li)潤，反(fan)而(er)因成(cheng)交量(liang)(liang)下降，利(li)潤比(bi)往(wang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)減少了。中(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)漲(zhang)價(jia)了，而(er)且是(shi)翻番上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)，也增加了中(zhong)成(cheng)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)生產(chan)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)，受成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)和(he)終端市(shi)(shi)場價(jia)格(ge)穩定的雙重擠壓，中(zhong)成(cheng)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)生產(chan)企業已(yi)經是(shi)虧本(ben)(ben)生產(chan)了。出廠價(jia)已(yi)經是(shi)低(di)于成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)價(jia)了。造成(cheng)中(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)非理性波(bo)動(dong)，價(jia)格(ge)大幅上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)4至(zhi)(zhi)9倍(bei)的原因是(shi)什么？中(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)價(jia)格(ge)還會繼續(xu)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)嗎？中(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)能不能降下來呢(ni)？投資有沒有風險呢(ni)？

一、中藥材去年至今產量有所下降，尤其是市場需求量比較大的中藥材市場供應量有所下降

受干旱、漬澇等原(yuan)因(yin)(yin)影響，自去年(nian)以來中藥(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)種(zhong)(zhong)植產(chan)(chan)(chan)量有(you)所(suo)下降。中藥(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)保(bao)健(jian)功效(xiao)越(yue)(yue)來越(yue)(yue)被國人(ren)(ren)所(suo)認識(shi)，市(shi)場(chang)(chang)需(xu)求(qiu)量每年(nian)呈(cheng)增長(chang)趨(qu)勢，價(jia)格也(ye)(ye)是(shi)呈(cheng)上(shang)漲趨(qu)勢，但像今年(nian)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)中藥(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)上(shang)漲4至(zhi)9倍可(ke)能(neng)(neng)是(shi)比(bi)較(jiao)(jiao)少見的(de)(de)(de)(de)。野生(sheng)中藥(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)基本上(shang)無法滿足市(shi)場(chang)(chang)需(xu)求(qiu)了(le)(le)，也(ye)(ye)基本上(shang)枯竭了(le)(le)。目前市(shi)場(chang)(chang)上(shang)銷售的(de)(de)(de)(de)中藥(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)都是(shi)人(ren)(ren)工種(zhong)(zhong)植的(de)(de)(de)(de)，而(er)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)農對市(shi)場(chang)(chang)行情缺乏了(le)(le)解(jie)，盲(mang)目的(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)，往往會使某些中藥(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)斷供。藥(yao)(yao)(yao)農往往是(shi)“隨大流”，人(ren)(ren)家種(zhong)(zhong)植什(shen)么我也(ye)(ye)種(zhong)(zhong)植什(shen)么，而(er)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)需(xu)求(qiu)量大的(de)(de)(de)(de)，醫院、制藥(yao)(yao)(yao)廠常用的(de)(de)(de)(de)中藥(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)反而(er)缺乏，促使中藥(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)價(jia)格上(shang)漲。夸張宣(xuan)傳，夸大療(liao)效(xiao)、虛假宣(xuan)傳，也(ye)(ye)是(shi)拉升中藥(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)上(shang)漲的(de)(de)(de)(de)主要原(yuan)因(yin)(yin)。當歸在藥(yao)(yao)(yao)店里價(jia)格已(yi)經漲到5毛(mao)錢一(yi)克(ke)了(le)(le)，冬蟲夏(xia)(xia)草更(geng)是(shi)“天價(jia)”了(le)(le)。中藥(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)受原(yuan)產(chan)(chan)(chan)地因(yin)(yin)素影響，人(ren)(ren)參只(zhi)能(neng)(neng)是(shi)長(chang)白(bai)山(shan)人(ren)(ren)參、三七只(zhi)能(neng)(neng)是(shi)云(yun)南產(chan)(chan)(chan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)，當歸只(zhi)能(neng)(neng)使用寧夏(xia)(xia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)，冬蟲夏(xia)(xia)草只(zhi)能(neng)(neng)是(shi)西藏(zang)地道(dao)，這也(ye)(ye)制約了(le)(le)中藥(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量。我國目前還沒有(you)中藥(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)儲備庫，對市(shi)場(chang)(chang)也(ye)(ye)無法宏觀調(diao)控，沒有(you)一(yi)個統一(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)國內大市(shi)場(chang)(chang)，市(shi)場(chang)(chang)監管(guan)比(bi)較(jiao)(jiao)混亂。

二、今年中藥材價格爆漲可能場外“游資”進入市場了，投資者可能是推高中藥材價格的“黑手”

今年(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)價格(ge)爆漲(zhang)(zhang)可能(neng)是(shi)(shi)場(chang)外“游資”工業入市場(chang)了(le)(le)，他們從藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)農(nong)手(shou)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)低價收(shou)購(gou)儲存，囤積(ji)居奇，哄抬價格(ge)，流入市場(chang)的(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)就比較少(shao)了(le)(le)，價格(ge)也(ye)(ye)(ye)就上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)了(le)(le)，而(er)(er)且是(shi)(shi)一漲(zhang)(zhang)再漲(zhang)(zhang)。夏季是(shi)(shi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)供應和(he)交易淡季，正(zheng)常(chang)情況(kuang)下市場(chang)價格(ge)只(zhi)跌不(bu)(bu)(bu)漲(zhang)(zhang)，今年(nian)(nian)這個夏天一反(fan)常(chang)態(tai)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)突然大漲(zhang)(zhang)，有(you)(you)點不(bu)(bu)(bu)正(zheng)常(chang)了(le)(le)。價格(ge)上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)4至9倍(bei)，采購(gou)的(de)(de)企業和(he)消費者(zhe)也(ye)(ye)(ye)就不(bu)(bu)(bu)敢大量購(gou)買(mai)了(le)(le)，采購(gou)的(de)(de)企業也(ye)(ye)(ye)只(zhi)能(neng)少(shao)量購(gou)買(mai)的(de)(de)，無(wu)論是(shi)(shi)4大中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)市場(chang)，還(huan)是(shi)(shi)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)店里，購(gou)買(mai)的(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)也(ye)(ye)(ye)是(shi)(shi)廖廖無(wu)幾(ji)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)不(bu)(bu)(bu)同(tong)于其他商品，投(tou)資有(you)(you)沒(mei)有(you)(you)風(feng)險呢？我認為風(feng)險還(huan)是(shi)(shi)無(wu)法估計的(de)(de)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)成藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)已經比西藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)貴幾(ji)倍(bei)了(le)(le)，再漲(zhang)(zhang)價中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)成藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)病患(huan)是(shi)(shi)無(wu)法承(cheng)受了(le)(le)，只(zhi)能(neng)去吃(chi)西藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)，不(bu)(bu)(bu)利于中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)醫(yi)發展，也(ye)(ye)(ye)不(bu)(bu)(bu)利于國人(ren)(ren)相(xiang)(xiang)信中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)醫(yi)。囤積(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)風(feng)險大，吃(chi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)的(de)(de)畢(bi)竟(jing)是(shi)(shi)少(shao)數(shu)(shu)病患(huan)，而(er)(er)且不(bu)(bu)(bu)是(shi)(shi)所有(you)(you)病患(huan)吃(chi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)，大多數(shu)(shu)是(shi)(shi)相(xiang)(xiang)信西醫(yi)西藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)的(de)(de)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)醫(yi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)國人(ren)(ren)沒(mei)有(you)(you)多少(shao)人(ren)(ren)相(xiang)(xiang)信。市場(chang)價格(ge)波動也(ye)(ye)(ye)比較大，一旦種(zhong)植上(shang)豐產(chan)豐收(shou)了(le)(le)，價格(ge)會回落的(de)(de)。投(tou)機囤積(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)材(cai)，一旦“游資”出場(chang)，可能(neng)會傾家蕩(dang)產(chan)。

三、國家應該加大中藥材市場監管，建立健全中藥材儲備庫，來調控市場價格行情

這些年中(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)市(shi)場比較混亂，各大(da)(da)中(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)市(shi)場價格也不(bu)(bu)統(tong)(tong)一(yi)，也缺乏監管。中(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)變成“吃不(bu)(bu)起(qi)了”，中(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)缺乏市(shi)場調(diao)節(jie)機制，價格只漲不(bu)(bu)跌。中(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)不(bu)(bu)僅是(shi)(shi)商品屬性(xing)，還有(you)藥(yao)(yao)品屬性(xing)，中(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)價格居(ju)高不(bu)(bu)下，只能是(shi)(shi)讓國人看病(bing)貴，看不(bu)(bu)起(qi)病(bing)。中(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)大(da)(da)多不(bu)(bu)在醫(yi)保報(bao)銷(xiao)范圍，吃中(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)病(bing)患只能是(shi)(shi)望而興(xing)嘆。我(wo)認為(wei)(wei)必(bi)須要改變中(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)價格虛高，建立(li)全(quan)(quan)國統(tong)(tong)一(yi)的大(da)(da)市(shi)場，建立(li)健全(quan)(quan)全(quan)(quan)國中(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)儲備庫。可(ke)以讓中(zhong)(zhong)華全(quan)(quan)國供銷(xiao)社統(tong)(tong)一(yi)制種(zhong)、統(tong)(tong)一(yi)種(zhong)植管理、統(tong)(tong)一(yi)的加(jia)工上市(shi)。當前應該打擊囤積居(ju)奇，炒(chao)作中(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)行為(wei)(wei)，讓中(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)真(zhen)正為(wei)(wei)醫(yi)療藥(yao)(yao)品，讓中(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)受國人追捧，成為(wei)(wei)國粹。中(zhong)(zhong)藥(yao)(yao)材(cai)(cai)是(shi)(shi)用來(lai)治病(bing)的，不(bu)(bu)能不(bu)(bu)講人道！